Events in the Caucasus
have continued to offer observers choice issues for
analysis. On everyone’s mind, of course, is the lack of
development in the normalization of relations between Turkey
and Armenia. The two sticking-points – the “Armenian
genocide” issue and that of acknowledging Azerbaijan’s call
for first making progress toward a resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – have remained major obstacles in
the way forward. The “genocide” obstacle has been
strengthened by the statement of the Constitutional Court of
Armenia that the application of the protocols signed in
October 2009 should comply with the paragraph 11 of the
Armenian Declaration of Independence. The said declaration
determines for Armenia a goal of achieving the international
recognition of the “genocide” on the one hand, and raises
territorial claims against Turkey on the other hand.
Ankara’s reaction to the statement has been quite harsh,
since such an understanding on the part of Armenia of the
normalization process wouldn’t allow for setting up the
bilateral “historical commission” envisaged in the protocols
– an issue, which has been regarded by Turkey as the major
achievement in the whole process.
Second, the hype
surrounding the “resetting” of U.S.-Russian relations has
also not yielded any substantial fruit. It has, however,
given South Caucasian countries cause for concern, as the
Obama Administration slowly – but surely – turns its gaze
toward other parts of the world, and onto other global
issues. As a result, Russia has now arguably achieved a
greater degree of confidence, assured that the “West” is
kept at arm’s length from its sphere of influence in its
neighboring countries. As our
Caucasus Update
pointed out, the other international issues to which the
Obama Administration’s focus has shifted in the New Year
include (i) Iran’s nuclear ambitions and (ii) the protracted
conflict in Afghanistan. In particular, Azerbaijan will keep
a close eye on developments in Iran for the obvious reasons
of national security and the large Azerbaijani population
there. This situation – akin to the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, Russia-U.S. relations and the Armenia-Turkey
protocols – is on hold for the moment. Although these issues
seem quiet for the time being, the potential for sparks to
suddenly begin flying is ever present.
Events within Russia’s own
borders have continued to spiral out of control: the
situation in the North Caucasus remains volatile after the
attempted assassination of Ingushetia’s president Yunus-bek
Yevkurov, and Moscow has since been scrambling to find a
solution - a task, which will unlikely get easier even after
the appointment of a “federal-level” leader in charge of
North Caucasian affairs.
Our Winter 2010 issue,
then, allows us to analyze these cases in point while we
catch our collective breath. Russia figures prominently in
our current issue: One paper centers on the concept of
Russia’s attempts to influence its neighbors, and a second
on its National Security Strategy of Russia. Furthermore,
another paper takes a profound look at language rights in
Tatarstan, while a comment tries to illuminate the peaceful
co-existence of the two major religions in Kazan and the
issue’s interview is with one of the leading scholars on
conflict in the North Caucasus. Finally, we present, among
others, reviews of the books dedicated to the 2008 war
between Georgia and Russia, and to the comparative study of
the power politics in the US and Russia. An in-depth
assessment of the state transformation in Georgia and
Armenia, and an analysis of the prospects of turning EU into
an important international actor after the ratification of
the Lisbon Treaty are presented alongside the solid
evaluation of the reforms in Central and Eastern Europe
since the fall of the “Iron Curtain”.
There is also some
positive CRIA-related news to report: We have now officially
been added to another influential academic database – the
EBSCOhost – and have also signed a license agreement with
the academic database GALE (part of Cengage Learning). In
addition, we have also formed a new partnership with the
largest foreign policy web portal in Germany,
www.aussenpolitik.net,
which belongs to the German Council on Foreign Relations
(DGAP). And, as our readership increases, the launch of our
redesigned web page will make the CRIA a user-friendlier
forum of scholarship.
As always, it is with
sincere pleasure that we invite you to explore our new
issue. We look forward to your comments, questions and
future written contributions, and we thank you for choosing
our unique Review as a source of information on affairs that
affect the South Caucasus.